In 2008, Presidential candidate Barrack Obama took the stance that “marriage is the union between a man and a woman.” While these views seem out of touch today, they represented the majority of Americans in 2008. Only four years later public perception had shifted, and Obama became the first president to support same-sex marriages. This shifting of public perception represents a shift in the “Overton window” of the matter. This post will explain what an Overton window is and why it is important.
What is an Overton Window?
Imagine a window with a fixed frame with the sides of the window representing the extremes of the political spectrum. The space within the window represents the range of ideas that the public is willing to consider. By pushing on one side of the window (advocating for a particular policy), proponents can gradually move the center of the window, making their preferred policy seem more mainstream.
The Overton window is a concept used to describe the range of ideas that the public is generally willing to accept or consider. It was introduced as a concept thirty years ago by Michigan political scientist Joseph Overton and is another tool for manipulation to be aware of. Learn about other common biases in this post about the Psychology of Persuasion or this post about Decision Making.
The Overton window is not static. Over time, social movements, advocacy groups, and public discourse can influence the window, causing it to expand or contract for certain policy issues.
The Overton Window of Marijuana Usage
Another example of how public perception has shifted is the public view on marijuana usage.
Politicians typically follow public trends – as Obama did with the Overton window shifts in gay marriage. The state of Maine and several other states have already legalized marijuana use, and I expect to see more politicians joining the majority of Americans and supporting laws that legalize marijuana for the entire United States sometime in the next 5-10 years.
Why is the Overton Window Concept Important?
I have watched the Overton window concept used strategically by policymakers and advocacy groups – including mainstream media outlets. By introducing seemingly extreme ideas at first, they can gradually shift the Overton window and make their preferred policies seem more moderate and acceptable in comparison.
Here is an example, pulled from a June 2024 “The Daily Show” episode featuring Jon Stewart. You can see how statistics around the drop in violent crime are ignored and images and stories of crime are used to shift the Overton window so the watcher believes things have become much worse than they really are.
The US will elect a new President and Congress in 2024, a decision that will impact the economy and markets for years to come. Issues around crime, gun control, immigration, and tax policy will lead to policy decisions that impact all of us. We all need to be wary of politicians and organizations who may want to shift public perception for their personal gain. Radical ideas will tend to unconsciously bias us, and a barrage of radical ideas can normalize them.
Overton Windows in Consumer Markets
The Overton window concept also applies to consumer goods and services. One example is the Tesla Cybertruck.
When the Cybertruck was first announced by Elon Musk, the radical design shifted consumer perceptions of a truck. As Cybertrucks become more commonplace on American roads, the design concept will slowly move to become more mainstream and acceptable. Even if you hate the design, it will make future models more “normal” and acceptable.
Summary
It is interesting to look at political and consumer positions today and from the past and see how some ideas have moved from “radical” or “fringe” thoughts to mainstream views. The Lean East team wants you to always be aware of how both unconscious biases and deliberate manipulation tools can introduce variation (noise) and affect decision making.
We encourage all of our readers to adopt a growth mindset and be willing to shift positions over time. Just be aware of how and why you may be influenced.
